Gov. George W. Bush has decided to take the calculated risk of supporting a measure of Social Security privatization as a centerpiece of his Presidential campaign. It's modest: he proposes to allow individuals to invest up to 2% of their current FICA (Social Security) taxes in privately controlled equity accounts. Modest or not, the proposal, in itself, something of a surprise. While Gov. Bush's policy proposals are, for the most part, solidly conservative, they tend to the cautious.

It's a given, of course, that Vice President Gore will (indeed, already has) label Bush's proposal "risky" and "dangerous". He will attempt to scare seniors and voters nearing retirement age by telling them that Bush's plan is a risk to the solvency of the program and that, if the Bush plan goes forward, they will be reduced to eating dog food in their golden years. These are outrageous lies, of course (Al Gore is talking); Social Security surpluses currently run to 2.3%. But, considering the smashing success of the 1996 MediScare campaign, this tactic might still work.

So why would an ordinarily cautious conservative like Bush embrace a plan that will jigger with the Third Rail of American politics? It would be easy to merely make noises about "support" for "looking into a plan" for "some kind of adjustment" to Social Security. It would be easier still to state flat out that he supports the program and will do nothing to endanger it, leaving the issue for another time. The answer can only be that he knows it's a winner. And there are good reasons to believe he's right.

We have witnessed a rather quiet revolution in America the last few years. Workers are taking over the means of production in a way never imagined by the Marxists still wandering ghoul-like through my old Sociology Dept. Last year, 43% of American households owned stock. The number has risen to over 50% in the last few months. Playing the market, once a game for-professionals-only, is now as common as baggy Tommy Hilfiger pants (perhaps more so, Tommy's sales are dropping, and his stock price along with them). A good many of these stockholders pay very close attention to their portfolios. Some of us don't go more than a couple of hours without checking on them, whether we plan to sell or not. And we're learning - fast - just how much power the government has to affect the value of our holdings (Microsoft stockholders would make an excellent source of quick Republican campaign cash right now if they hadn't watched their stock plummet almost 50% in a month thanks to the Justice Dept.).

They also know that the stock market consistently earns an average return of 7% or so every year. When they compare that to the dismal 1.6% this year's retirees are going to get on the retirement funds the Feds have been expropriating from their paychecks all these years, well, Social Security doesn't look too hot. It gets worse if they're younger: People born this year will be lucky to get a .9% return. Need I remind anyone that bank interest pays better than that (a lot better); and nobody considers their savings account their primary retirement fund.

So Bush's plan makes sense financially. But that didn't prevent MediScare from working. In 1996, Bubba & Co. somehow convinced the nation's elderly voters that reducing the rate of growth of MediCare spending to three times the rate of inflation was tantamount to gutting the program. The sky would fall, old people would effectively be euthanized by the heartless GOP Congress, and Bubba got himself another plurality. So the question remains, why would Bush take the risk of giving Gore's Legions of Untruth and Distortion such an easy target?

Well, not to suggest that Bush is another Bubba, but perhaps the polls have something to do with it. Polls consistently indicate that the electorate strongly supports privatization. Moreover, this support is not limited to middle class WASPs. Majorities of every race, sex, age, and political persuasion solidly and unequivocally support privatization.

For Al Gore and the rest of the status quo crew, it only gets worse. As more Americans hitch a ride on the stock market express, more will support privatizing Social Security. It's not just that they'll see that portion of their income languishing compared to the rest (which, of course, they will). It's not just that they'll look to the confiscatory tax rates they'll and their children will have to pay to keep Social Security afloat once the Baby Boomers start retiring (though that's certainly true, also). It isn't just that more and more people are less and less convinced that the government can do anything right (which one hopes is as true as it seems in the line at the Post Office). And it isn't just that a larger number of people taking personal responsibility for their own financial well-being cuts into the traditional base of Democratic voters: Those dependent on government largesse (though it most certainly does). There's also the fact that they know that, once all that money that used to be taken by FICA taxes starts flowing into stocks instead, their portfolios will skyrocket. And they're right.

Gov. Bush has taken a strong, principled stand the voters like on a very touchy issue. Al Gore has good reason to worry.